I'm back for some analysis ! First of all, I need to make an announcement : I've been spending a lot of time recently, watching the charts. Those holidays were a bowl of fresh air and made me realize there are more important things in life than crypto.
This is a reminder for all us : keep important things in mind. Spend more time with your half, your family and your friends. Spend less time on the charts.
As you all guessed, I will therefore post less analysis in here. Be assured I will continue ! But not on a daily basis. More a weekly basis. I want to dedicate more time to what really matters to me in life.
So let's talk about the charts.
Weekly closed and doesn't look bad. That said it could look better. Indeed, a close above 6800 would have been more bullish. Right now, weekly is under that resistance, hopefully we can break out this week. Wait and see.
As mentioned on the weekly, we're under the 6800 resistance. A clean break of this level would bring us easily to 7100, I believe. Right now this could go sideways, but at least we're out of the range we were evolving during more than ten days. Support are 6600 and 6350 levels.
Still the same old 4hour charts. I didn't changed the level for two weeks. Right now,we're evolving between 6600 and 6800. A break out of the 6800 would bring us at 7100. A break down of the 6600 would bring us into the range, with a support at 6350.
Conclusion : I'm waiting to clear one of those level, up or down, before taking any position. So I'm waiting ang sitting flat now.
Wish you all a wonderful week, and if anything happens during the week, I'll let you know for sure.
Just a little note before I start the daily analysis of BTC : I'll be away from the charts for a few days. Going to have some vacations and I don't want anything to disturb while enjoying the sun of Queensland.
I'm not gone yet but I'm already curious about how it's going to look like when I'll be back.
Okay, let's start
We closed right at the edge of the middle of the range. Price action is bad. If we don't hold this level, we're good to say hello to lower prices. I expect a 6100, possibly 6000.
4 HOUR CHART
As we can see, we were evolving in an symmetrical triangle. We broke down. I was hoping for the other side. Market structure broke.
If you remember yesterday's post I wanted to see the 6450 level hold and the uptrend be maintained. None of those two things happened. In this regard, a return in the lower part of the range is expected.
1 HOUR CHART
We broke under the 6350 level. Which is now a resistance. Current support at 6250. Last support for the bull : 6100.
On the chart above, you can see the incredible amont of volume exchanged on Bitfinex. Apparently, some bull whale was defending the 6300 level. Is that good ? Yes and no. Indeed the level was defended but imagine that whale selling the BTC he just bought. Selling pressure would be crazy.
Also keep in mind : SEC is going to take a decision about the Proshares ETF. I don't expect it to be accepted. More likely to be rejected or delayed. I don't really care about a delay (which will probably happen) but the market doesn't react the same. We all saw what happened when VanEck-SolidX got delayed. So stay safe, people. If you're in position, please don't forget your stop-loss.
Last thing : Shorters on BTC are at year time high. Does that mean short squeeze? Not necessary. Shorts could go parabolic and BTC go under 6k. Anything could happen. Only sure thing is next move will be interesting.
Here below the same chart I use since ten days now. Levels to watch are still the same. Bad thing is : we broke the small uptrend and will probably continue to range for the upcoming days.
In conclusion, with all these news coming in and the current trading context, I prefer to stay flat. A lot of uncertainty now. Plus it's holiday time, so I'd rather enjoy.
That's all folks, I wish you all an amazing week. See you when I'm back
PS : I already hear some people say "Imagine the etf gets accepted, shorts get squeezed, gap volume being filled, we would moon and you would miss this !" If this happen, then so be it !
(or maybe I'll put a buy order around 6650, just in case).
The weekly has closed for Bitcoin and it looks good to me. Let's have look at the charts.
Weekly closed on a Harami. Historically, BTC only closed once on a bottoming Harami formation, which led to a bounce. I personally like the setup here and aim for a bounce to the diagonal resistance. Please also note : this close could be considered as being the first higher low of the year.
Nothing new since yesterday. Still in the range. But approaching top of the range, which is good.
4 HOUR CHART
Looking good. Hoping for a close above the 6500 level. As long as we can maintain the uptrend (green diagonal line), I wouldn't worry. Aiming for 6600 from here.
1 HOUR CHART
I do like how price action behave now. Still looking at a few things here :
1) Maintaining the uptrend
2) Hold the 6450 support
3) Pay attention to 6600 level and shorts.
Something to be aware of : shorts are at a all time high currently. If we have a clear break of the 6600, I do expect a short squeeze, and we could reach the 6800-6900 level pretty fast.
My overall market sentiment is bullish, but still do have stops in place. Please be careful as long as the uptrend is not confirmed on a higher time frame.
Also, as I mentioned yesterday, fib levels are currently pretty good support and resistance indicators.
That's all folks, if you likes the analysis, please follow and give it a thumbs up. Cheers !
Currently looking for an entry around 6300-6250, if we find support.
I insist : "IF" we find support.
Aaaand we're back in the range. No uptrend for now. Daily closed around 6380. Not too bad, as it's in the upper part of the range. Still neutral bullish. Need to close above 6300 tomorrow to keep bullishness intact. Also, tomorrow is Weekly close, keep this in mind.
Found some support around 6300-6350. Former support at 6450 is now our resistance.
Did a Fib retracement : this thing shows us all the levels we need to watch. It's almost mind-boggling how it aligns nearly perfectly.
We can see we didn't retrace 50% of the upward movement yet. I expect some wick to arrive there. If PA finds support at this level (around 6250), it could provide a good entry. But we need to have support confirmation. Keep your stop tight, and buckle seatbelt if this doesn't hold.
Last refuge for the bulls are 6150. If this doesn't hold, I'd rather not think about BTC's next move.
That's it guys, if you liked this analysis, give it a thumb up, it's free and it encourages me !
On the daily : Still in the range. Closed around 6350, which is a good thing. We're in safe zone, in the upper part of the range. If downside, 6150 is a must hold level.
Nice engulfing candle on the 4h. Expecting more upside.
Choppy market. A heaven for day traders. We can see recent price action made us hit the 6400 resistance five time already. I dont expect resistance to hold this time. Target is 6600. If we can have a clear break of this level, 6800 is the next target. Indeed, there is a gap of volume to be filled, and 6800 is not unreachable.
But let's wait for 6600 first, we'll see 6800 after.
I took a position at 6400. Stop loss at 6350. Willing to add more if we go back to 6370. Same stop.
Not financial advice. This is more my Trading Journal.